Here's a brief preview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report.
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1. Global equity relativities: The extremes in relative performance of momentum/growth/cyclicals are a familiar sign of a maturing market (check out the must-see chart in the report), and at a minimum suggest scope for relative performance clawback.
2. US cyclicals cycle high: US cyclical sectors have reached extreme levels, we run a series of indicators which show how the balance of risks lie after a substantial rally.
3. Japan at the top: The TOPIX has topped out at the top end of its 20-year range, and with Japanese cyclical indicators likewise running hot, it’s an open question whether this is the top or a new paradigm.
4. Grains again: We run a series of proprietary indicators on grains which reveal a very interesting setup.
5. Australian credit spreads: As credit risk premiums shrink and fundamental indicators begin to raise question marks, the burden of proof for taking on Aussie credit risk is higher.
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights. Also part of the service is the monthly Chartbook which contains the key charts and views across asset classes with a tactical/dynamic positioning model.
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