Volatility | topdowncharts 5/6

Oct 2, 20172 min read

Weekly Sentiment Survey: Confidence and Complacency

This article reviews the data from the latest weekly sentiment survey we conduct over on Twitter. The survey measures respondents'...

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ChartBrief 154 - Seasonality update: What doesn't go down must go up...

Callum Thomas

Sep 28, 20172 min read

ChartBrief 154 - Seasonality update: What doesn't go down must go up...

As I write this article the S&P500 is up 1.4% month to date, with a max drawdown of -0.6% - which makes for a relatively joyful...

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ChartBrief 153 - Sentiment update: Euphoria Heights

Callum Thomas

Sep 26, 20172 min read

ChartBrief 153 - Sentiment update: Euphoria Heights

The preliminary September reading of The Euphoriameter showed a rebound from August to a fresh new 13-year high. All 3 components...

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Topdown Charts

Sep 22, 20172 min read

Weekly Macro Themes - 22 Sep 2017

Here's a brief preview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. To read more and see the...

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ChartBrief 149 - A New Extreme in Volatility

Callum Thomas

Sep 20, 20172 min read

ChartBrief 149 - A New Extreme in Volatility

The last time I reviewed this chart I pondered the possibility of a turning point or the start of a regime change for volatility... this...

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ChartBrief 146 - Bond market sentiment pre-Fed meeting

Callum Thomas

Sep 13, 20172 min read

ChartBrief 146 - Bond market sentiment pre-Fed meeting

The September FOMC meeting starts on Tuesday next week. Odds are good that they either announce QT (Quantitative Tightening) or flag its...

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Economic noise striking a cautionary tone

Callum Thomas

Sep 11, 20172 min read

Economic noise striking a cautionary tone

This article discusses an unusual but interesting indicator I designed to gauge the background economic noise emanating from an economy...

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ChartBrief 144 - Global policy uncertainty peaks and volatility troughs

Callum Thomas

Sep 8, 20171 min read

ChartBrief 144 - Global policy uncertainty peaks and volatility troughs

A curious couple of trends are underway on the global stage. Global economic policy uncertainty appears to have peaked at an all time...

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The implications of low implied correlations

Callum Thomas

Sep 4, 20172 min read

The implications of low implied correlations

In this article we take another look at a somewhat obscure indicator "implied correlations". The Implied Correlation Index comes from...

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Weekly Sentiment Survey: Fundamental Optimism

Callum Thomas

Sep 3, 20172 min read

Weekly Sentiment Survey: Fundamental Optimism

This article reviews the latest weekly sentiment survey we conduct over on Twitter. The survey measures respondents' equity and bond...

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VIDEO: Is a QT-Tantrum on the way for bond yields?

Topdown Charts

Aug 29, 20171 min read

VIDEO: Is a QT-Tantrum on the way for bond yields?

In this video we look at the prospects for a QT (Quantitative Tightening) tantrum for the bond market. The video walks through a couple...

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Weekly Sentiment Survey: Fundamental Capitulation

Callum Thomas

Aug 27, 20172 min read

Weekly Sentiment Survey: Fundamental Capitulation

This article reviews the latest weekly sentiment survey we conduct over on Twitter. The survey measures respondents' equity and bond...

235 views0 comments

ChartBrief 136 - A flash signal for bonds

Callum Thomas

Aug 23, 20172 min read

ChartBrief 136 - A flash signal for bonds

The August round of flash manufacturing PMIs saw the composite DM flash PMI basically unchanged. This was the product of stronger...

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Callum Thomas

Aug 20, 20172 min read

Weekly Sentiment Survey: Correction...

This article reviews the latest weekly sentiment survey we conduct over on Twitter. The survey measures respondents' equity and bond...

137 views0 comments

ChartBrief 134 - Volatility regime change?

Callum Thomas

Aug 19, 20172 min read

ChartBrief 134 - Volatility regime change?

You have to look very closely at the chart, but our alternative measure of volatility has turned up... i.e. the rolling annual count of...

282 views0 comments

ChartBrief 131 - S&P500 Seasonality Stir

Callum Thomas

Aug 16, 20172 min read

ChartBrief 131 - S&P500 Seasonality Stir

It's very timely to take another look at stockmarket seasonality. The brief panic last week (barely a 2% selloff) actually came at a...

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ChartBrief 129 - The thing about Trump and North Korea...

Callum Thomas

Aug 15, 20172 min read

ChartBrief 129 - The thing about Trump and North Korea...

After a crazy week the risk of a nuclear war has seemingly receded with the announcement by North Korea that its planned missile strike...

64 views0 comments

Callum Thomas

Jul 28, 20172 min read

ChartBrief 119 - THE DREADED TED SPREAD

The TED spread is something a lot of people were seemingly worried about a few months ago - at least that bearish crowd that provide the...

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ChartBrief 118 - Volatility bets hanging on

Callum Thomas

Jul 27, 20172 min read

ChartBrief 118 - Volatility bets hanging on

As equity market implied volatility grinds lower it's worth throwing a couple more charts into the mix. In this post we look at ETF bets...

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ChartBrief 113 - This measure of US equity volatility is at a 22-year low

Callum Thomas

Jul 24, 20172 min read

ChartBrief 113 - This measure of US equity volatility is at a 22-year low

On a range of trends and topics these are unusual times we live in, and stock market volatility is no exception. As a matter of fact,...

204 views0 comments