ChartBrief 186 - Bear Market Indicator
Don't let the title put you off, this bear market warning indicator is actually giving the all clear. This chart featured in the first...
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Callum Thomas
Feb 5, 20184 min read
Sentiment Snapshot: Meltdown?
A few weeks ago I wrote a report outlining the sentiment snapshot for markets, the theme was "melt up" as a number of sentiment...
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Callum Thomas
Feb 4, 20181 min read
Chart Of The Week: EM Valuations
The chart of the week is EM country valuation trends. This chart shows the median (because it is less sensitive to outliers) and upper +...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 31, 20183 min read
ChartBrief 184 - China Manufacturing vs Consumer
The latest official PMI data out of China showed a slowing of momentum in the manufacturing sector (51.3 in January vs 51.6 in Dec and a...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 29, 20182 min read
The Age of Expensiveness
If it seems like just about every asset class is expensive, then you're probably paying good attention to reality. Our indicators show a...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 28, 20183 min read
ChartBrief 183 - EM Equity Valuations
Emerging Market Equities have seen an incredible run since the 2016 bottom (not to make a song and dance about it, but that was about...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 24, 20183 min read
ChartBrief 182 - Bond Yield Outlook
With the latest round of flash manufacturing PMI data, and a couple of key levels already being breached (across markets) it's a good...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 22, 20182 min read
Copper Stocks Don't Buy The Rally
Something interesting has been going on in one of our commodity intermarket models. While the price of copper has surged back from the...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 22, 20183 min read
ChartBrief 181 - Country Valuations Follow-up (PE10 part 3)
Following on from the popular "Top 10 PE10 Part 2" post, there were a few questions from readers about where various other countries sit...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 17, 20182 min read
ChartBrief 180 - On Bulls and Bears
Studying sentiment surveys can help not only in short-term stockmarket timing decisions, but also in understanding the broader mood of...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 16, 20182 min read
ChartBrief 179 - The Top 10 PE10 Part 2
Here's an updated scan across countries and regions to find the top (and bottom) PE10, and follows on from a previous version I shared...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 16, 20182 min read
Something Strange in a Strange Credit Indicator
As I was going through and updating the various indicators that I monitor something in the credit space surprised me. The NACM CMI (think...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 15, 20183 min read
Sentiment Snapshot: Did somebody say Melt-Up?
I had to think a bit before going with that title. The term "melt-up" is an increasingly overused word, and given this article features...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 10, 20183 min read
ChartBrief 178 - Market Seasonality Maps
Another year another datapoint... Regular readers will be familiar with the first chart which shows the average daily returns for the...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 10, 20182 min read
ChartBrief 177 - The fourth Bond tantrum
US 10-Year Bond Yields have moved through a number of key levels and are on the cusp of a major breakout. Regular readers know by now...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 7, 20182 min read
Sentiment Survey: Furious Bulls
The latest weekly sentiment/positioning survey on Twitter revealed a continuation of some very interesting trends and a new record in...
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Callum Thomas
Jan 5, 20183 min read
ChartBrief 176 - EM vs DM Macro and Markets
With the December round of PMI data just released, it's a good time to take a look at some of the key macro and market metrics for...
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Callum Thomas
Dec 20, 20172 min read
ChartBrief 175 - US 10-year Bond Yields about to go to 3.5%?
A couple of things are happening in the bond space right now. Last week we got the flash PMIs for the major DM economies, and all fronts...
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Callum Thomas
Dec 18, 20172 min read
ChartBrief 174 - China Property, PPI, and EM Equities
The November property price data out of China confirmed what we've been talking about for a while now (before most others caught on); the...
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Callum Thomas
Dec 13, 20172 min read
ChartBrief 173 - Fed Hikes, What's Next
Much as I expected (given the progression of the data) the Fed hiked again in its December meeting [and in the background continues to...
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