In this video we look at the USDCNY exchange rate and talk through the top-down view on how the Chinese Yuan could still have a lot further to go yet. This is a particularly important topic for global investors, because as we saw in 2015 sudden and unexpected moves in Chinese financial markets can create ripple effects across global markets.
The key points we discuss in this video are:
1. The trend toward a softening macro outlook (property market topped out, export growth rolling over, and stimulus tailwinds turning to headwinds).
2. The trade-war/political overtones and how the Renminbi fits in with this.
3. Monetary policy divergence and policy differentials.
Given this combination of factors we believe the path of least resistance for the USDCNY is up (i.e. Renmnibi devaluation), and the exchange rate could head towards 7 if not higher.
The charts come from a recent edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report.
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